Colombian security forces are bracing for violence as the May 28 presidential elections draw close. FARC guerrillas, adamantly opposed to the reelection of Colombian President Alvaro Uribe , appear posed to launch several aggressive and deadly attacks in their attempt to dissuade the Colombian populace from their anticipated overwhelming vote for Uribe. Such attempts have borne little fruit in past months, as Colombian voters demonstrated their faith in Uribe’s aggressive military stance against leftist guerrillas and his reinvigorating of the Colombian economy by pointedly electing those legislators most in step with current governmental policies.
Of the 100 contested seats for the Colombian Senate, Uribe’s supporters obtained 61 seats while opposition parties (Liberals and the leftist Polo Democratico Alternativo) obtained 29 seats. Pro-Uribe candidates in the Chamber of Representatives secured 91 seats, while opposition and independent candidates claimed 45 and 30, respectively. If aggressive FARC tactics achieved any result, it was to ensure that those voters not entirely supportive of Uribe chose not to go to the polls, fearing Election Day violence at the hands of the FARC. Absenteeism?more than 60 percent of the potential 27 million voters?played a massive part in the results, with the majority of the populace choosing to partake in elections most aptly characterized as “die hard” Uribe supporters .
In practical terms, Uribe’s absolute majority in both the Senate and Chamber of Representatives will undoubtedly assist him in the upcoming legislative agenda that includes ratification of the Free Trade Agreement with the United States and ensuring the implementation of tough fiscal reforms that Uribe is seeking.
Continued FARC attacks in the coming weeks?such as the double bus bombing that occurred on April 6 ?will likely result in a similar trend. However, this should neither downplay the massive popularity Uribe is experiencing nor suggest that he will be victorious merely because of the lack of participation among the voting populace but rather should highlight the negative blowback FARC attacks are having on their general cause. After four decades of a guerrilla insurgency and half-hearted attempts by former presidential administrations to eliminate the various guerrilla and paramilitary organizations operating in Colombia, Uribe has repeatedly demonstrated his unwillingness to concede to FARC demands while simultaneously choosing to negotiate with the AUC and the ELN .
In retrospect, the April 6 attack is disconcerting due to the location of the attack: a working class district of Bogot?. It is the first major attack by FARC guerrillas in the capital since the 2003 car bombing of the El Nogal social club (Terrorist Incident forthcoming). Although the attack does not symbolize a changing modus operandi for the FARC, it purposively strikes fear into the capital, reminding Colombians that the insurgency is ongoing and demonstrates the continuing resoluteness of the FARC.
