To understand the threat posed by Man Portable Air Defense Systems (MANPADS), it is important to understand which actors are interested in acquiring or have acquired MANPADS, how MANPADS are acquired, how these actors can use MANPADS to further their strategic goals, and MANPADS’s destructive potential.
According to free-lancer writer Thomas B. Hunter, there are as many as 27 non-state insurgent, guerrilla, and terrorist groups around the world that possess MANPADS. While many of the groups that have MANPADS are more concerned with local issues and fighting local insurgencies, there are a handful of groups with access to MANPADS that directly threaten the United States . For example, it is believed that al-Qaeda has acquired Russian-made and US-made MANPADS. Evidence was demonstrated in its unsuccessful attack against an Israeli commercial aircraft on November 28, 2002 in Mombasa, Kenya .
Experts estimate that there are approximately 500,000 MANPADS in the world today and that many thousands of these are available on the black market. The most available and most sought after MANPADS include the Russian-made SA-7 (aka Strela), the Russian-made SA-18 (aka Igla), and the US-made FIM-92 (aka Stinger). The collapse of the Soviet Union has resulted in an increased availability of the Russian-made MANPADS, as black market arms dealers have successfully infiltrated the Russian arms trade. Advanced MANPADS, such as the Stinger and Igla, can be procured on the black market for approximately $30,000 while earlier generation and less sophisticated Russian systems, such as the Strela, can be procured for under $10,000. Due to this the wide availability and relatively low price tag, it is safe to assume that insurgents, guerrillas, and terrorist groups can easily acquire and afford MANPADS.
It is, however, important to note that the more sophisticated MANPADS, such as the Stinger and the Igla, are not as widely available as the earlier generation Strela. Thankfully, the more widely available Strela is not as effective as the more sophisticated systems. For example, according to Globalsecurity.org, the SA-7s are ?easily overcome by solar heat and, when used in hilly terrain, by heat from the ground.? These earlier generation MANPADS require more training and experience to operate. It is instructive to note that Mombassa failed attack was carried out with an SA-7.
Still, MANPADS represent an ideal weapon for al-Qaeda for the simple reason that they can easily enable it to achieve its stated goals. Al-Qaeda followers believe that targeting the US economy will enable it to force a US withdrawal from the Muslim world. Evidence of this strategy can be found in Osama bin Ladin? own words (see Terror Web Watch reports). In his statement released prior to the 2004 US presidential elections, bin Ladin said, ?we are continuing this policy in bleeding America to the point of bankruptcy?for example, al-Qaida spent $500,000 on the event, while America, in the incident and its aftermath, lost?according to the lowest estimate?more than $500 billion. Meaning that every dollar of al-Qaida defeated a million dollars by the permission of Allah, besides the loss of a huge number of jobs.?
MANPADS can help further this goal of damaging the US economy. RAND estimates, in a paper entitled Protecting Commercial Aviation Against the Shoulder-Fired Missile Threat, that a successful attack against a US civilian airliner within the US homeland would have severe consequences for the US economy. Direct cost from a downed civilian airliner, in the form of lost life and the lost aircraft, would amount to approximately $1 billion. The indirect costs from an attack would be felt from any government-mandated shutdown of the airline industry and any long-term public reluctance to fly. According to RAND, loses over the months following an attack, subsequent shutdown, and resultant public loss of confidence in the airline industry could total as much as $15 billion.
Therefore, given the low cost, high availability, and potential for serious economic devastation, MANPADS represent an ideal weapon for al-Qaeda and other terrorist groups interested in attacking the United States.