Italy is just days away from its presidential elections on April 9-10 that have been more contentious and dirty that in recent memory. The politicking pits incumbent Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi (see photo left) against former Prime Minister Romano Prodi (see photo right) . The release of the US Public Announcement (Advisory) for US citizens to be vigilant in Italy in the days surrounding the election has served to enflame an already tense political atmosphere. The warning calls on US citizens to “be prudent in any public protest situation,” according to an Embassy spokeswoman. Berlusconi, who maintains an association to Lega Nord and the House of Liberties coalition, has long appeared the darling of the US, having appeared on March 1 before the US Congress in what has been interpreted as a US attempt to help his political candidacy. Prodi, who is supported by L’Ulivo (The Union) coalition and the business lobby, contacted US Ambassador Ronald Spogli in protest. Berlusconi condemned Prodi’s move in what appeared to be a sycophantic effort to curry US support, claiming the alert was, in fact, justified because “the United States addresses its citizens, as is its right, warning them that in Italian political demonstrations there are situations that may be dangerous for Americans.” Further, he implied that Prodi’s camp might even be responsible for political demonstrations or resulting violence, stating, “the left is the home of people who practice violence.” The political mudslinging is reminiscent of US politics, but the wider?perhaps more important?issue is possible terrorist threat to Italy during its election.
The warning from the US government makes sense in light of the Madrid train bombings in the lead up to the Spanish presidential elections. Spain then and Italy now have a number of parallels. Spain’s then-Prime Minister Jose Maria Aznar and Berlusconi both backed the war in Iraq . The decision was unpopular in both countries. And, their presence in Iraq was unwelcomed; in June 2004 and November 2003, the Italian Embassy was targeted in Iraq with mortar fire (Terrorist Incident and Terrorist Incident). While Spain did not have any citizens kidnapped and threatened with beheading, Italy has lost at least three citizens to such gruesome deaths (Terrorist Incident, Terrorist Incident, and Terrorist Incident). Perhaps the success of the Madrid train bombings and the subsequent withdrawal of Spanish troops from Iraq has increased the terrorists willingness to kidnap foreign nationals and kill them to achieve their desired goals. Thus, should an attack take place in Italy, regardless of whether Berlusconi or Prodi should win the election, the country must remain engaged in Iraq, to save the neck?literally?of the entire Coalition military and civilian presence. Prodi, who is five percentage points ahead in popular polling, is adamantly against the Italian involvement in Iraq and will likely push for immediate troop withdrawal (source), a position that might explain the US’s tacit support of his rival.
Further, Italy also has a burgeoning radical movement?to include xenophobic Lega Nord, No TAV!, anti-globlizationists, anarchists, etc.?that might have been responsible for violence on March 11 . Additional violence by any number of these movements should not be discounted, not because they necessarily have a stake in the election, but rather because of the disarray and thinly-stretched law enforcement coverage any single protest would cause. Additionally, Milan is widely considered Europe’s hub for radical Islam (source), and Muslims there generally remain segregated, disenfranchised, and marginalized. The lack of integration and moderation should be constructive topics at the Islamic Cultural Center in Milan, but Imam Abu Imad harps on the Mohammed Cartoons (source) among other inflammatory diatribes. The primary concern of law enforcement now is whether militants from the Iraq theater have been exported into mainland Europe from Italy.
With all these veins of tension and animosity possibly colliding over the election, the likelihood for protest and disruption, at the least, and violence and terrorism, at the most, is likely. Some gatherings are likely to be anti-US for economic, social, and/or military reasons. As the Advisory notes, US citizens would be well advised to “maintain vigilance, take appropriate steps to increase their security awareness, and exercise caution in public places or while using public transportation” and “to avoid areas where crowds are expected to gather, take common sense precautions, and closely follow media reports.”