The statistical and anecdotal evidence of migrations of Iraqis from ethnically and religiously mixed areas to homogenous ethno-religious communities as a result of sectarian violence and fear of reprisals is a profoundly concerning development regarding Iraq?s stability and cohesion. The migrations may represent an early stage of a spiral toward widespread ethnic cleansing and/or segregation within cities and regions along ethno-religious and sectarian divides; the fracturing of Iraq into ethno-religious provinces and sectarian political-military blocs; and possible civil war. If these movements grow in pace and/or are galvanized as a result of designed ethnic cleansing campaigns, the potential for the fracturing of Iraq into sectarian blocs and ethno-religious provinces?and possibly civil war?is heightened.
Against a backdrop of faltering attempts to form a national government, weak national security forces unwilling or unable to impose widespread security, and menacing sectarian militia attacks, Iraqis might be disillusioned with the prospect of a viable and strong central government able to establish security and serve their communal interests and the Iraqi national political project as a whole. In turn, this environment is likely to compel a retreat into the security of ethno-religious sectarian groupings. These migrations may represent early indicators of an entrenching of ethno-religious groupings and the cultivation of in group-out group mentalities. Further, the menace of sectarian militias fuels the polarization. These instigators, in turn, energize survivalist and communal interest motivations. These groupings may be perceived by Iraqis as the best option they have to defend themselves and their particular communal interests.
This climate has galvanized and drawn to the fore underlying ethno-religious sectarian and political groupings as the key actors in Iraq at present. These political and societal trends have the very real potential of setting in motion a cascading spiral of intra-group insularity and inter-group violence.
In addition to the migrations, other indicators and catalysts of the beginning stages of civil war include a recent New York Times report noting that since the Samarra bombing , gun sales and prices on the Iraqi street have spiked, and the ranks of militias are swelling. This surge is part of what Times author, Jeffrey Gettleman, characterizes as a ?frontier mentality? within Iraq. This infusion of weapons and militia members into a society already roiling with aforementioned sectarian dynamics may serve to exacerbate conflict.
Should these factors and dynamics continue on their current trajectory, particularly involving migrations spurred by sectarian intimidation and conflict, the potential for large-scale civil war in Iraq grows apace.
