Recent clashes between US/Iraqi forces and Shia militias has drawn the US into more open confrontation with rising Shia nationalist-rebel power Moqtada al Sadr and the Shia political bloc and militias, stirring up a dangerous milieu in Iraq of what could be considered a low-grade civil war that is set against a faltering national government and political project.
Though details of a US-led raid on a Shia mosque complex reportedly defended by Shia militiamen remains sketchy and contradictory, the episode underscores the powerful presence and continued martial and political power of ethnic-religious and political militias as the most influential, and potentially destabilizing, groupings within Iraq. In particular, the militant and sectarian activities of the Shia militias?especially by the Mahdi Army and those operating inside the national security forces,?continue to serve as primary catalysts to destabilizing Iraq and driving it toward full-scale civil war.
That the details of the raid have been perceived by the Shia community as having killed civilians and that the clashes with Shia militias may have set them on guard for further attacks may have stiffened both groups? resolve to look out for their own communal and organizational interests. Within the political sphere, this might mean an erosion of interest among Shia politicians to embrace the pluralist, nationalist political processes, seeking instead to consolidate and fortify Shia political interests within the government. For Shia militias, these developments may be perceived as an opening salvo of a push to destroy them militarily, likely setting them on a defensive posture. Further, perceived threats to the Shia community by the US or rival ethno-religious sectarianism will also likely cultivate communal defensiveness and may galvanize support for Shia militias.
Amid the intense climate of what is possibly a low-grade civil war and with national security forces still too weak to impose security, coupled by a stumbling formation of a national government, ethno-religious militias have emerged as the most powerful and influential politico-military actors in Iraq.
Thus, it is critical that the anger and suspicion of Shia leaders that the raid targeted civilians must be assuaged, and the leaders must be encouraged to form a stable pluralist national government, institutions, and development initiatives as the first stage of repairing sectarian divides. Of particular importance is the development of integrated national security forces to impose internal national security and supplant the militias, thus winning away popular support for them. Without such developments, the ethno-religious sectarian and political militias and their representatives and societal constituencies are likely to grow entrenched and powerful in Iraq as communal-political-militant groupings.
