Over the past month, while reports from Iraq told the story of a low-level civil war simmering across the country, others looking westward began to ask: ?is Lebanon [Country Profile] next?? This was the very title of a report published in the March 13 issue of the New Republic. While Lebanon?s consociational democracy had been held up as a potential model for the new Iraqi government, it now seemed that both countries could be backsliding toward civil war (see this WAR Report).
While Iraq continues to be threatened with descent into that pit, Lebanese politicians, representing every major confessional group in the country, convened a National Conciliation Conference at the behest of Shia parliamentary speaker Nabih Berri . Commenced on March 2, the conference was adjourned over tough issues five days later, then restarted on March 13.
The conference was able to achieve agreements on a couple of items before the six day break: the decision was made to maintain full diplomatic relations with Syria and also to disarm Palestinian factions outside the refugee camps. Executing the latter successfully is a key to maintaining stability in the city of Sidon and in other population areas around the Palestinian camps, although it may be argued that Lebanon will continue to be threatened by terrorist violence until factions within the camps are also disarmed and the camps themselves are submitted to Lebanese national authority. That day, however, is a long way off.
The two issues that threatened the conciliatory aims of the conference revolved around the fate of current Lebanese President ?mile Lahoud and the status of Shebaa Farms, a small area in the south of Lebanon now occupied by Israel . Little progress on either topic was made.
As is often the case in politics, the issues being argued over were only symbols representing even larger, tougher areas of contention. Shebaa Farms, a patch of land measuring about two kilometers by 14 kilometers located at the intersection of the Lebanese, Syrian, and Israeli borders, is hardly a piece of real estate worth risking a civil war over. Shebaa Farms matters because it represents an excuse for Hizbollah to remain armed. The dispute in this conference was over whether Shebaa Farms was part of Lebanon or Syria. If it is considered part of Lebanon by the Lebanese, then Israel is viewed as occupying Lebanese land. Hizbollah has, over the past several years, justified its existence on the Israeli occupation of Lebanese soil with the threat that comes with it of another Israeli incursion further into Lebanon. As the threat of another Israeli occupation deeper into Lebanon seems less and less likely, Shebaa Farms is of greater importance in allowing Hizbollah to exist as a militia. The status of Shebaa Farms is, thus, a euphemism for the future status of Hizbollah.
Walid Jumblatt, the Druze leader who would like to see Hizbollah weakened, arrived at the meeting carrying maps he claimed were from the United Nations that depicted Shebaa Farms as part of Syria. However, it may not matter what Lebanon decides. If the Syrians willingly cede Shebaa Farms to Lebanon, a move that they will likely do in order to support Hizbollah, then the UN will probably recognize the area as a part of Lebanon. Even if Syria lays claim to the area, it will be an uphill battle to disarm Hizbollah.
The other issue, the fate of Lahoud, in part represents the battle over Syria?s continuing role in Lebanese politics. Largely considered a Syrian puppet, Lahoud’s term runs out in 2007, and he has pledged to stay until his term ends. Anti-Syrian voices in Parliament would like to see Lahoud go now. In spite of the anti-Syrian majority in Parliament, however, it will be difficult to replace Lahoud, mostly because of the dearth of popular alternative candidates. The Lebanese constitution states that the office of the presidency must be held by a Christian. General Michael Aoun has manipulated the political situation enough to dominate the position of next-in-line, but the General has made so many concessions to different groups in order to hold that spot that he seems to have jeopardized his appeal in the process, with different factions unable to be sure of what he would really do as president. For example, though it is believed by some that Aoun would be an anti-Syrian president and, at the very least, would not be a Syrian puppet, Aoun angered many when he suggested that Islamists, not Syria, may have killed Rafiq Harriri and, worse, refused to attend ceremonies held on the one-year anniversary of Hariri?s death out of deference to Syria. Similarly, others worry that in order to gain the support of Hizbollah and its stubborn Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah , Aoun may sign agreements legitimizing Hizbollah?s status as a militia indefinitely, in opposition to UN Resolution 1559, which calls for the disarmament of Lebanon?s militias. However, while he has pandered to Hizbollah, the Jerusalem Post has also reported that Aoun ?expressed support for a peace agreement with Israel,? something that could sink both Hizbollah?s justifications for its arms and hurt its popular support. The term ?flip flopping? does not really translate in Arabic, but Aoun?s inconsistencies and unpredictability have elicited equally strong words and may have weakened him as a potential replacement for Lahoud.
As the week goes on, the resolution of these issues may not be agreed upon, but, at the very least, participants must produce a framework or process in which to continue debating and negotiating the issues in order to avoid the worst case scenario of sectarian violence. Nabih Berri, whose comments in Lebanese papers on the dialogue seemed nearly desperate, has called this conference ?an opportunity for national salvation.? Berri may be right: Lebanon?s salvation looms over more specific, petty issues now on the conference table in Beirut.
