The Bush administration has made an emergency request to Congress for $75 million to support Iranian opposition groups and democracy focused Non-Governmental Organizations (NGO) within Iran . Given the prohibitive consequences of military action , and the tenuous state of UN sanctions that rest on the votes of China and Russia , providing financial and political assistance to the democratic voice in Iran is a welcomed and overdue addition to America?s foreign policy toward Tehran. And while the decision to launch the pro-democracy campaign is sound, it is imperative that US policymakers understand these actions are fraught with risk, and careless implementation could lead to a dangerous backfire.
The administration has specifically avoided defining ?regime change? as the goal of this new strategy; Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has more gently characterized the program as a means to ?support the aspirations of the Iranian people for freedom in their country? (source). However, inundating the Iranian public through Internet, radio, and television outlets with a pro-democracy and pro-western message, and supporting the growth of labor unions and NGOs promoting human rights and democracy is an attempt to turn Iranians against the governing theocracy. The Iranian government will understand such a campaign as a threat to its legitimacy and authority, and they will act accordingly.
The Iranian government will likely attack any group outwardly associated with the US government and its efforts to influence Iran through soft measures. There is the real potential that opposition groups, NGOs, and everyday citizens pushing for democracy will be labeled as American lackeys and traitors to the Islamic Republic. The target of US aid may suffer under a theocracy backlash and lose support in the public for a perceived affiliation with the US government. In turn, the Iranian government could strengthen their own power by rallying the populace against an external threat?the infiltration of foreign ideological forces. Venezuela provides a contemporary example of such a backfire; President Hugo Chavez has masterfully manipulated the US government?s support of the opposition movement to diminish its power and increase his own, convincing his public that the opposition is an American proxy that fears his populist agenda.
Should Tehran feel increasingly threatened by a US democracy campaign that gains traction in Iran, there could be extreme consequences. In response to similar efforts by the Clinton administration in the 1990s, the Iranian government responded by funding terrorist attacks against Israel (source). As the world?s leading state sponsor of terrorism, it is conceivable Tehran would react by covertly initiating terrorist attacks against US interests, either at home or abroad.
Additionally, in implementing a plan to affect the domestic politics of Iran, the US will undoubtedly have to fight its own history. Iranian government officials, as well as the general public, are intimately aware that the CIA helped orchestrate a coup in 1953 that overthrew the government of Iranian Prime Minister and nationalist hero – Mohammed Mossadegh . Mossadegh had nationalized the Iranian oil industry, at a severe economic loss to Great Britain , and he paid a dire price for empowering his nation. Regardless of its accuracy, the current populist president?Mahmoud Ahmadinejad ?will draw parallels with this famous event, Iran?s current struggle against the West to produce nuclear energy and the US plans to influence domestic Iranian society.
There is an opportunity for US actions to succeed in empowering the democratic forces within Iran. First, the country has a youthful and politically engaged populace that has exhibited a desire for reform in its government and society. Second, unlike her neighbors in the Middle East and South Asia, Iran possesses a populace that generally supports American society and culture. However, there are potentially serious pitfalls for initiating a pro-democracy campaign. US policymakers must consider carefully these worst case scenarios as they set about the job of implementing this new element of American foreign policy toward Iran.
