Russia’s Electoral Endgame
“In February 2013 General Valery Gerasimov, Chief of the Russian General Staff, published an article in Voyenno-Promyshlennyy Kurier (VPK) entitled ‘The Value of Science Is in the Foresight: New Challenges Demand Rethinking the Forms and Methods of Carrying out Combat Operations’. In this article he explains that ‘a perfectly thriving state can, in a matter of months and even days, be transformed into an arena of fierce armed conflict, become a victim of foreign intervention, and sink into a web of chaos, humanitarian catastrophe, and civil war.’ This statement provides a glimpse at what is possible through the use of what he describes as indirect and asymmetric methods. The article explores the role of private military contractors, special operations, and irregular forces in modern conflict. Gerisamov notes while pondering information warfare that the adoption of technology played a significant role in influencing events in North Africa during what he calls the color revolutions.
Considering the doctrine detailed by Gerisamov in this article, and retrospectively exploring the events that emerged in the last Ukraine election, one can reasonably define a playbook for using indirect and asymmetric to influence.”