Stratechery has benefited from a Meta cheat code since its inception: wait for investors to panic, the stock to drop, and write an Article that says Meta is fine — better than fine even — and sit back and watch the take be proven correct. Notable examples include 2013’s post-IPO swoon, the 2018 Stories swoon, and most recently, the 2022 TikTok/Reels swoon (if you want a bonus, I was optimistic during the 2020 COVID swoon too). Perhaps with that in mind I wrote a cautionary note earlier this year about Meta and Reasonable Doubt: while investors were concerned about the sustainability of Meta’s spending on AI, I was worried about increasing ad prices and the lack of new formats after Stories and then Reels; the long-term future, particularly in terms of the metaverse, was just as much of a mystery as always. Six months on and I feel the exact opposite: it seems increasingly clear to me that Meta is in fact the most well-placed company to take advantage of generative AI. Yes, investors are currently optimistic, so this isn’t my usual contrarian take — unless you consider the fact that I think Meta has the potential to be the most valuable company in the world. As evidence of that fact I’m writing today, a day before Meta’s earnings: I don’t care if they’re up or down, because the future is that bright. Generative AI is clearly a big deal, but the biggest winner so far is Nvidia, in one of the clearest examples of the picks-and-shovels ethos on which San Francisco was founded: the most money to be made is in furnishing the Forty-niners (yes, I am using a linear scale instead of the log scale above for effect).

Full opinion : Why Meta is well positioned to be AI’s main beneficiary in the short, medium, and long term: generative AI, ads, infinite content, XR, “generative UI”, and more.