Fine Tuning Your Falsehood Detector: Time to update the models you use to screen for deception, dishonesty, corruption, fraud and falsity
The best business leaders are good at spotting falsehoods. Some joke and say they have a “bullshit detector”, but that humorous description does not do service to the way great leaders detect falsehoods. Bullshit is easy to detect. You see it and smell it and if you step in it it is your own fault. In the modern world falsehoods are far more nuanced.
Now more than ever, business and government leaders need to ensure their mental models for detecting falsehood are operating in peak condition.
Lance Mortlock is a Senior EY Strategy Partner. He is author of the book Disaster Proof: Scenario Planning for Post Pandemic Future, which explores ways scenario planning can help organizations be more resilient. This is a must-read book for anyone in the Risk Management field. It provides practical advice for strategists, planners, executives and board members on how to ask better questions related to the future, uncertainty, risk and strategy.
What The C-Suite Needs To Know About The USG Advisory on Risks and Considerations for Businesses Operating in Hong Kong
The US Government released a statement jointly produced by the Department of State, Department of Treasury, Department of Commerce and Department of Homeland Security on the topic of business risks associated with operating in Hong Kong. If any single agency released a memo on a topic like this it would be important. With all four teaming to produce this it is a clear signal that this advisory should be read and understood by any company doing business in or with Hong Kong.
OODA has long been advising our clients and network members on the nature of the changes underway in Hong Kong and for most of our readers here the changes are probably not a surprise. But this joint advisory provides a good opportunity to pause and review the situation and assess whether or not your strategy is in the right place. We provide a list of recommendations for the C-Suite at the end of this overview.
Dr. Tony Tether was the director of the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, DARPA, from 2001 till his retirement in 2009. In this OODAcast we examine some of Dr. Tether’s formative experiences, including a very unique job he held while awaiting entry to Stanford. He was a door to door salesman and while doing that learned the importance of quickly assessing challenges that were not being addressed and then forming an ability to express what needs to be done and how to do it quickly. As we hear in the discussion, this type of approach, very consistent with the famous “Heilmeier Catechism”, ended up producing a wide range of DARPA breakthroughs, including one that is now in every cell phone in the globe (next time you use your cell phone’s mapping and location services, remember to thank the Fuller Brush company!).
AI technologies are making continuous advances in domains like industrial robotics, logistics, speech recognition and translation, banking, medicine and advanced scientific research. But in almost every case, the cutting edge AI that drives the advances drops from attention, becoming almost invisible when it becomes part of the overall system. The fact that most AI use today is invisible can lead to the erroneous assumption that it is not delivering on expected value, and this can translate to caution when considering new ways of applying AI to business operations. If your competition becoming apathetic about AI they may be doing you a favor. To keep your organization for doing them a favor back, we provide our recommendations for your approach to an AI strategy here.
In early May we began a discussion with our OODA Network members that started with an observation. About six months prior we had been through the Solar Winds attack, which from our perspective was clearly one of the most damaging attacks/espionage operations in history. Soon after that, the attack series named Hafnium by Microsoft was revealed. Hafnium had started as espionage but then turned into a Gold Rush of criminal activity, one of the worst attacks in history. Then the Codecov attack hit.
You know where we are going with this don’t you? We are in an age of continuous crisis.
Much of the Western US is now officially in a drought. This post provides information business and government leaders should know about this including insights into how drought impacts key sectors of the economy. It also provides four scenarios that can be used for organizational strategic planning. It concludes with recommendations for business and government leader consideration.
Gaurav Banga is the Founder and CEO of Balbix, and serves on the boards of several companies. Before Balbix, Gaurav was the Co-founder & CEO of Bromium and led the company from inception for over 5 years. Earlier in his career, he served in various executive roles at Phoenix Technologies and Intellisync Corporation, and was Co-founder and CEO of PDAapps, acquired by Intellisync in 2005. Dr. Banga started his industry career at NetApp. Gaurav has a PhD in CS from Rice University, and a B.Tech. in CS from IIT Delhi. He is a prolific inventor with over 70 patents.
Now more than ever, organizations need to apply rigorous thought to business risks and opportunities. In doing so it is useful to understand the concepts embodied in the terms Black Swan and Gray Rhino. This post examines both and leads to recommended action plans for any organization in government or business who seeks to mitigate risk while focusing on opportunity.
Game theory, the study of competition and conflict, tells us there are two types of games: Finite Games and Infinite Games. Understanding that cybersecurity, like espionage, is an infinite game, should inform our all our actions in cyberspace. This post provides suggested considerations for businesses, individuals and governments seeking advantage in this infinite game.