Lieutenant General (ret.) Clint Hinote, U.S. Air Force and Major General (ret.) Mick Ryan, Australian Army – Special Advisors to the Special Competitive Studies Project (SCSP) – have co-authored a paper on “Uncrewed systems—which are now undergoing a form of Cambrian Explosion in capability, quality, and quantity…these systems are disrupting how combatants are considering risk, cost, and authority on the modern battlefield.” Find their framing and insights here.
Empowering the Edge Uncrewed Systems and the Transformation of U.S. Warfighting Capacity
“While we still have much to learn, it is evident that [the] widespread use of uncrewed systems—primarily in the air but increasingly in the ground and maritime domains— is disrupting the conduct of war. But despite the disruptive nature of uncrewed aerial systems, by themselves, they are not transforming war.
It is only when drones are combined with…
…The democratization of digitized command and control systems; and
New-era meshed networks of civilian and military sensors…
….that transformational change will occur.”
These three elements comprise a transformative trinity explored later in this paper, and it is only within this construct that drones will fully realize their potential for defense and other national security applications.
Offset X
“In May 2023, the Special Competitive Studies Project published a major report titled Offset-X: Closing the Deterrence Gap and Building the Future Joint Force. This report identifies ten key offset technologies that can provide an effective conventional strategic deterrent against adversaries. If adversaries cannot be deterred, these new technological injections in the joint force will provide a range of asymmetric advantages over potential enemy networked forces such as China’s People’s Liberation Army.
The concept of “Offset X” focuses on closing the deterrence gap and building a future joint force by leveraging offset technologies for an effective conventional strategic deterrent against adversaries. It emphasizes the importance of Human-Machine Collaboration (HMC) and Human Machine Teaming (HMT) to optimize decision-making and execution of complex tasks in warfare. The U.S. military aims to lead in these areas to maintain an advantage in future conflicts. Uncrewed systems play a significant role in the Offset X strategy, especially when combined with other technologies and capabilities to transform the battlefield. The strategy outlines key technologies and capabilities that will be crucial in shaping the future of deterrence and warfighting concepts.”
The Transformative Trinity
“Well designed humanmachine teaming will underpin generating future military advantage.”
The “Transformative Trinity” in military contexts refers to the integration of new technologies like drones, the democratization of higher-quality information, and collaboration with commercial firms to enhance military capabilities
Within the array of capabilities identified in Offset X, a trinity of systems is transforming the battlefield in central Europe and beyond. These are:
- Democratized and digitized battle command-and-control (C2), allows the uploading and distribution of militarily valuable information by everyone in the battlespace.
- Meshed civil-military sensor networks, which see an unprecedented combination of open source and classified data, as well as meshing of civilian, commercial, and government analysis, provide an unprecedented (but not transparent) view of the battlespace and enemy strategic systems.
- The uncrewed systems – counter-uncrewed systems complex in the air, land, and sea.
This transformation involves:
- Utilizing uncrewed systems;
- Empowering leaders with command authority over these technologies;
- Leveraging the skills of reserve components with contemporary technological expertise; and
- Striking a balance between internal and commercially sourced systems.
The key is to adapt quickly to technological advancements and innovate to stay ahead in modern warfare.
Drones in the Transformative Trinity
“It is no longer true that the best information is necessarily at the headquarters or operations center.”
Drones play a significant role within the transformative trinity, which includes new technologies and ideas in warfare. This concept emphasizes the democratization of information in the battlespace, shifting from scarcity to abundance. The integration of civil and military sensor networks, fueled by drones, and connected to digital command and control systems, has enabled more effective approaches to warfare. The empowerment of leaders with command authorities over drones is crucial for optimal utilization in relevant domains, allowing for a combination of maneuvers and fires on the battlefield. The transformative trinity involves a shift in how military institutions command and control forces, apply tactics and educate personnel, ultimately leading to a more efficient and informed decision-making process in warfare.
What Next?
The Drone Network Architecture involves the deployment of drones for reconnaissance, surveillance, and strike operations on the front lines. Operators use First-Person View (FPV) to direct the mission of each drone and economic principles are adopted to allocate scarce air refueling and C2 aircraft resources like an economic problem. Commercial drones sourced directly from companies to Ukrainian brigades have increased access to effective drone systems, which is likely to continue in future conflicts. Companies like Microsoft and Votix offer solutions for Drone Orchestration and Automation.
Drone Swarms are groups of drones that work together in a coordinated manner, becoming increasingly prevalent in military operations. Ukrainian forces have effectively utilized drones for reconnaissance, surveillance, and strike operations on the front lines, demonstrating their effectiveness. These drone swarms can be controlled by operators using First-Person View (FPV) technology for individual mission direction. The Microsoft and Votix solutions for drone orchestration and automation illustrate the evolving landscape of drone technology in warfare. The future of military operations may involve integrating multiple uncrewed systems operated by personnel, emphasizing the need for new approaches in recruitment, training, and empowerment of individuals to navigate this changing environment.
The report discusses how drone swarms are changing the game of how militaries utilize technology, providing smaller states with access to affordable intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance capabilities. Uncrewed systems are altering the perception of risk on the battlefield, leading to disruptive shifts in how wars are initiated, conducted, and concluded. The utilization of drones in combat is significantly impacting how risk, cost, and authority are considered in modern warfare, pushing for the creation of new cutting-edge systems that are less costly and reduce human exposure to danger. This transformative shift in utilizing drones is democratizing the distribution of high-quality information in the battlespace, revolutionizing military command and control, tactics, and operational art at a pace unseen for decades.
DoD’s Replicator Initiative
“We’ve set a big goal for replicator: to field attritable, uncrewed systems at a scale of multiple thousands [and] in multiple domains within the next 18-to-24 months.” Dr. Kathleen Hicks Deputy Secretary of Defense
The Replicator Initiative was announced by U.S. Deputy Secretary of Defense Kathleen Hicks to field attritable, uncrewed systems on a large scale across multiple domains within the next 18-to-24 months. This program aims to empower leaders on the front lines through mass, low-cost, all-domain, attritable systems with various degrees of autonomy. The program is seen as a response to the evolving military landscape and draws insights from experiences in Ukraine and wargaming efforts by the U.S. and its allies. It seeks to leverage uncrewed systems to enhance military capabilities while considering factors like cost, capability, and quantity in building fleets of such systems. For more on Replicator, see “Two Fronts in the Future of Drone Warfare.”
Opportunities for the Strategic Development of Uncrewed Systems
The section on “Opportunities for the Strategic Development of Uncrewed Systems” in the SCSP report emphasizes the advantages these systems offer to military institutions when employed within a transformative trinity system. To fully realize their strategic potential, changes in people, processes, and procurement are deemed necessary. It is highlighted that integrating sensors, digitized command and control, and uncrewed systems across services and alliances is crucial, with a focus on developing redundancies in manufacturing and applying alliance doctrine on uncrewed systems.
Collaboration is also essential to counter potential adversary systems and explore the impacts of a lower ratio of human-operated systems on situational awareness and operational insights. Additionally, the report suggests that human-machine teaming could provide future military advantage and recommends experimentation with prototypes to develop new warfighting concepts and counters for uncrewed systems, drawing on lessons learned from real-world situations and anticipating technological advancements.
People
“As with any transformation in war, cultural reform is both crucial and difficult.”
The human factor – the critical role individuals play in military capabilities – is emphasized by the report (especially in maximizing the benefits of unmanned systems), along with the following considerations:
- Militaries need to adapt in recruiting, training, culture, and leadership due to the evolving use of unmanned technologies; and
- The impact of new technologies on traditional strategies and the need for updated preparation for warfare highlight the vulnerabilities of concentration of power and people in the face of precision weapons.
Process
“The changing density of humans and uncrewed systems, particularly in what has previously been regarded as close combat, may fundamentally change the nature of military institutions.”
Process in this context refers to the transformation in military affairs, emphasizing key processes like tactics, doctrine, organization, support agencies, and learning and adaptation in military institutions – with an emphasis on:
- The importance of command and legal authorities invested in leaders, with implications for doctrine, education, and training; and
- Empowering leaders with the authority to command uncrewed systems in relevant domains is crucial, guided by general direction from higher headquarters.
Procurement
“…the need to nurture imagination for a different future in military procurement.”
The challenges and importance of acquiring equipment for military institutions, particularly uncrewed systems, were prioritized in the report. It emphasizes the need for leadership, collaboration, and innovation in the procurement process, along with the cultural challenges and the need to nurture imagination for a different future in military procurement. Additionally, it mentions the procurement of ‘off the shelf’ commercial drones and the goal of fielding affordable uncrewed systems on a large scale. The authors suggest:
- The rapid procurement, training, and education based on distributed warfighting concepts to enhance operational effectiveness. The section also emphasizes partnering with external entities to accelerate the development and manufacturing of indigenous uncrewed systems 5. The information provided underscores the evolving nature of military procurement in adapting to technological advancements.
For further recommendations made by Lieutenant General Hinote and Major General Mick Ryan in the conclusion of this report, go to a full pdf version at Empowering the Edge Uncrewed Systems and the Transformation of U.S. Warfighting Capacity.
Additional OODA Loop Resources
For previous OODA Loop News Briefs and Original Analysis on this topic, see OODA Loop|Drones OODA Loop | Swarm
The Defense Intelligence Agency on the Iranian-backed Drone Power of Russia and the Houthis: Two recently declassified Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) reports extensively detail the Iranian-backed drone capabilities fueling the reconfiguration of global warfare into a drone swarm architecture – fueling what John Robb has framed as the future: asymmetric, non-nation-state kinetic capabilities organized into drone swarms enhancing the ability for warfighting capabilities “networked tribes” and “global guerrillas” usurping that of traditional military doctrine and the monopoly on the threat of violent conflict traditionally held exclusively by nation-states.
Drones and Port Security: OODA Network Members John P. Sullivan and George W. Davis, along with co-author Tom Adams, have penned a report based on a geospatial security assessment for the Port of Brownsville, Texas (which “holds the distinction of being the sole deep-water port situated directly on the US-Mexico border”). Details of the report here.
The Network Swarm Attack on Israel and the Escalating Global Networked War: Intelligence Failure? Black Swan? Gray Rhino? Systemic Failure? An entropic, sclerotic Israeli political system? The geopolitical and regional power context for the recent surprise, large scale and violent Hamas attack of Israel may prove to be “all of the above”. What is clear is the attack was designed as a large scale, kinetic and digital “network swarm” – which now opens up a new, “formal” kinetic front in the ongoing, global networked war in the Middle East. Swarm dynamics are a crucial mental model – which we apply here to the Hamas network swarm attack of Israel.
Russian Invasion of Ukraine: Russia’s aggression against Ukraine prompts global repercussions on supply chains and cybersecurity. This act highlights potential threats from nations like China and could shift defense postures, especially in countries like Japan. See: Russia Threat Brief
Israel and Gaza: The horrors of war in the region are also giving rise to uncertainty in markets, but for now it seems the war will not spread throughout the Middle East. There were many initiatives between Israel and Arab/Persian nations that have been stalled due to the war.
Economic Weakness in China: China’s economy faces dim prospects exacerbated by disasters, COVID-19, and geopolitical tensions. Amid limited financial transparency, some indicators suggest China’s economic growth is severely stunted, impacting global economic stability. See: China Threat Brief
Networked Extremism: The digital era enables extremists worldwide to collaborate, share strategies, and self-radicalize. Meanwhile, advanced technologies empower criminals, making corruption and crime interwoven challenges for global societies. See: Converging Insurgency, Crime and Corruption
Food Security and Inflation: Food security is emerging as a major geopolitical concern, with droughts and geopolitical tensions exacerbating the issue. Inflation, directly linked to food security, is spurring political unrest in several countries. See: Food Security
Demographic Time Bomb: Industrialized nations face demographic challenges, with a growing elderly population outnumbering the working-age demographic. Countries like Japan and China are at the forefront, feeling the economic and social ramifications of an aging society. See: Global Risks and Geopolitical Sensemaking
Geopolitical-Cyber Risk Nexus: The interconnectivity brought by the Internet has made regional issues affect global cyberspace. Now, every significant event has cyber implications, making it imperative for leaders to recognize and act upon the symbiosis between geopolitical and cyber risks. See The Cyber Threat
Embracing Corporate Intelligence and Scenario Planning in an Uncertain Age: Apart from traditional competitive challenges, businesses also confront external threats, many of which are unpredictable. This environment amplifies the significance of Scenario Planning. It enables leaders to envision varied futures, thereby identifying potential risks and opportunities. All organizations, regardless of their size, should allocate time to refine their understanding of the current risk landscape and adapt their strategies. See: Scenario Planning
