For Corporate Strategic Planners: Five Scenarios For War’s End
As we have discussed in OODA network meetings and our reporting since the beginning of renewed Russian hostilities against Ukraine, assessing the likelihood of war was relatively easy. We listened to what Putin was saying and understood Russian history, culture and Putin’s imperial ambitions and assessed early that he had made up his mind to invade. But as soon as the war started it became much harder to project the course of events. War is the ultimate competition and surprise must be expected.
That said, we did project that as Russia’s attempt at a US style shock and awe maneuver war campaign failed they would revert back to their old style of horrendous destruction. Sadly that is exactly what happened. It was also easy to make the broad prediction that Putin may seek ways to declare a victory and seek to end hostilities with some sort of gains. Based on propaganda shifts over the last few days there are indications that Putin is seeking to shift to this approach.
However, the war is still on and no one can say with any certainty what happens next. This situation calls for scenario planning.
OODA’s approach to scenario planning is informed by the tried and true methods taught by the US military and now practiced by major corporations around the world. We seek to produce realistic scenarios that can inform decision-makers before the future arrives.
Objective: Support strategic planning by describing a short list of future scenarios (with risks and opportunities) that could come to pass.
Questions: How and when will current hostilities end?
Scope: This is a quick and dirty draft of scenarios designed to give members something to accelerate strategic planning with.
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