As we have discussed in OODA network meetings and our reporting since the beginning of renewed Russian hostilities against Ukraine, assessing the likelihood of war was relatively easy. We listened to what Putin was saying and understood Russian history, culture and Putin’s imperial ambitions and assessed early that he had made up his mind to invade. But as soon as the war started it became much harder to project the course of events. War is the ultimate competition and surprise must be expected.
That said, we did project that as Russia’s attempt at a US style shock and awe maneuver war campaign failed they would revert back to their old style of horrendous destruction. Sadly that is exactly what happened. It was also easy to make the broad prediction that Putin may seek ways to declare a victory and seek to end hostilities with some sort of gains. Based on propaganda shifts over the last few days there are indications that Putin is seeking to shift to this approach.
However, the war is still on and no one can say with any certainty what happens next. This situation calls for scenario planning.
OODA’s approach to scenario planning is informed by the tried and true methods taught by the US military and now practiced by major corporations around the world. We seek to produce realistic scenarios that can inform decision-makers before the future arrives.
Objective: Support strategic planning by describing a short list of future scenarios (with risks and opportunities) that could come to pass.
Questions: How and when will current hostilities end?
Scope: This is a quick and dirty draft of scenarios designed to give members something to accelerate strategic planning with.
The Scenarios: These scenarios are based on a 2×2 matrix of who will win and how fast the war will be over. We also added a fifth scenario of an expansion of conflict.
- Scenario One: War ends on terms favorable to Ukraine in less than 6 months.
- Scenario Two: War ends on terms favorable to Ukraine in at some point more than 6 months from now.
- Scenario Three: War ends on terms favorable to Russia in less than 6 months.
- Scenario Four: War ends on terms favorable to Russia at some point more than 6 months from now.
- Scenario Five: War expands to other countries or results in stalemate and the end is not in sight.
Scenario One: War ends on terms favorable to Ukraine in less than 6 months.
In this scenario Putin realizes his only hope is to stop prosecuting the war. Internally he will use the Russian media to declare success. End of war means total cessation of hostilities with no weapons being fired.
Ukraine will immediately begin recovery operations and more than likely the EU and US, with assistance from other open nations, will begin a massive deployment of aid to save lives and begin rebuilding infrastructure, agriculture and telecommunications and strengthen the Ukrainian military and intelligence operations to ensure no future Russian attack could occur.
Although Russian sanctions will not immediately be removed, discussion will start on things Russia can do to cause a gradual lifting of sanctions.
Risks and Opportunities for Business:
- Ukraine rebuilding will require new technologies for telecom, defense, aerospace
- Look for new international construction contracts for ports, roads, buildings
- Speed of contracting and speed of work projects to be much faster than other scenarios
- First contractors and leaders to get on scene to help will be able to establish trust based relationships faster.
Signals:
- Russian declarations of success that do not match reality
- Ukrainian liberation of cities in South
- No additional Russian troops being moved towards Ukraine
Scenario Two: War ends on terms favorable to Ukraine in at some point more than 6 months from now.
This scenario also involves Putin realizing he must stop. But the extended campaign will have left Ukraine in ruin and left Russia’s military significantly depleted and Russia’s economy in collapse. The humanitarian crisis in both Ukraine and Russia will be devastating with food shortages and failing economies resulting in tens of millions being thrust into poverty. The extended war and its impact on food exports from Ukraine will have also given rise to food riots and destabilization in many North African and Middle Eastern countries that depend on Ukraine for grain.
Upon war’s end, this scenario also will see a massive influx of aid to seek to save lives and begin to rebuild, but the devastation will mean the rebuilding takes years or even a decade. It is hard to call this a victory for Ukraine till this rebuilding is done, but when it is done, Ukraine will be free and better defended than ever.
In this scenario, it is hard to imagine a lifting of sanctions now in place against Russia unless Russia takes dramatic positive steps to atone for their actions.
Risks and Opportunities for Business:
- Ukraine rebuilding is necessary, but starting from a devastated landscape. Risk of failure of delivery of contracted solutions is much higher due to uncertainties associated with rebuilding in a devastated land.
- Opportunities for massive leap ahead in communications technology. For example, direct move to satellite communications for cell phones vice cell towers.
Signals:
- Inability of Ukraine to liberate cities in South
- Increase in air campaigns by Russia
Scenario Three: War ends on terms favorable to Russia in less than 6 months.
This scenario would see the complete surrender of the current Ukraine government and carving out of large pieces of Eastern Ukraine as independent regions, with all land in the former Ukraine under the control of Russia.
Sanctions will likely remain in place in Russia. But eventually, trade with Russia and trade with Ukraine will start to resume. Odds are in any scenario where Russia is the victor a new conflict will begin based on revolt and insurrection. An internationally, although some trade may resume, Russia will be isolated and more of an international pariah with a deep and enduring harm to international standing.
Risks and Opportunities for Business:
- Businesses should seek to find ways to improve agriculture in other nations to support nations in need. Huge new gaps to fill in need for food in North Africa and Middle East.
- Need for new defense technologies that can thwart Russian attack. New, larger “Iron Dome” capabilities for all of EU
Signals:
- Death of key Ukrainian leaders
- Expansion of territory under Russian control
- More Russian troops and logistics moving into theater
Scenario Four: War ends on terms favorable to Russia at some point more than 6 months from now.
This scenario will also see complete control by Russia but the extended duration of fighting means they will be controlling a destroyed land. Russia will have no desire to assist Ukraine in any recovery, resulting in massive deaths due to starvation. The previously highly productive Ukrainian agricultural sector will no longer be in operation with no likely resumption of exports of food.
It is hard to imagine sanctions ever being lifted from the Russian economy. Russia will likely become almost totally dependent on China for assistance. Russia will become a large dictatorship with life in Russia approaching that of life in DPRK. The only hope for change will be in leadership change and history indicates that rarely goes well.
Risks and Opportunities for Business:
- Businesses should seek to find ways to improve agriculture in other nations to support nations in need. Huge new gaps to fill in need for food in North Africa and Middle East.
- Need for new defense technologies that can thwart Russian attack. New, larger “Iron Dome” capabilities for all of EU
Scenario Five: War expands to other countries and the end is not in sight.
An expansion of this war beyond Ukraine is a nightmare scenario. It could involve war with all of NATO versus Russia and members of their Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). CSTO is composed of Russia, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan.
Another variant of this scenario is an extended digging in and long lasting trench warfare inside Ukraine.
This scenario needs to be considered even though it is unthinkable.
Risks and Opportunities for Business:
- Destruction of industrial capacity of much of the EU will devastate the world economy.
- Potential nuclear war significantly increased
- Space war will devastate on orbit capabilities
- Hard to imagine any opportunities for success for anyone.
Concluding Context
Looking over all the scenarios above businesses should be prepared to improve delivery of products and services to the US national security sector. Understand the mission needs of this sector and architect to solve the needs of tomorrow.
It would also be prudent to be prepared for a win by Ukraine quicker than most are anticipating. For CEOs that will want to support the US national security community or NATO or Ukraine, all should be planning to enhance service when the war ends.
Just asking the question may help focus some planning. For example, if the free world rapidly moves to invest in rebuilding Ukraine, does your company have products or services that can help accelerate the rebuilding? Imagine the US providing a $100 B investment fund to Ukraine. Would any of that be for things serviceable by your firm? Who would you team with to pursue that? Should you be working with your law firm or department of commerce to see if there are export controls that cover what you do? Should you be planning to send a team to Kyiv to meet directly with government and industry leaders there? Should you be prepared to spend more time traveling to meet with the DoD combatant commands who may have people in need of your product, service or technology?
We would love your feedback and questions/comments on this report. Do so at the OODA Member Forum.
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