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Full Log4Shell Attack Chain-Enabled Conti Ransomware Gang Supports Russia; Ukrainian Gang Member Retaliates

In early February, We first provided an analysis of the cybercrime crackdown by Russian authorities, which included the arrest of members of the REvil gang.  Later, we learned that a REvil gang arrestee is tied to the 2021 Colonial Pipeline attack in the U.S.  Overall, follow-up reports suggest a growing sentiment that the Russian authorities were out to optimize the appeasement value to the U.S. of the arrests.  We later suggested that the REvil gang arrest (and offering up the individual connected to cyberattacks in the U.S.) was possibly a false flag.

Our suggested scenario at the time:  The Russians gave up the REvil gang while still planning to lean on non-state actors within Russia for plausibly denial cyberwar operations against Ukraine and/or information war efforts which enable a ‘small footprint’ invasion of Ukraine.  Our latter assumption has proven true.  A few days ago, the Conti Gang announced their support for the Russian Government.

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Daniel Pereira

Daniel Pereira

Daniel Pereira is research director at OODA. He is a foresight strategist, creative technologist, and an information communication technology (ICT) and digital media researcher with 20+ years of experience directing public/private partnerships and strategic innovation initiatives.