If you are interested in the black swan/gray rhino aspects of the Covid-19 pandemic response, explore OODA Research and Analysis by searching ‘pandemic.’ The results tell the story of the OODA Loop research team tracking and analysis efforts (in the years leading up to 2020) of the following topics: 1) pandemic early warning systems; and 2) pandemic preparedness efforts, amongst others. The database is rich and ripe for exploration and brainstorming.

In retrospect, the public health, economic stability, and national security measures that were in place were not strategically structured enough to adequately respond to the challenge when a pandemic of the scale of Covid-19 actually arrived on our shores.

We were not alone: since December 2019, the world has been on its heels – along with the U.S. – in what has simply proven a wily virus in terms of its mutability, transmissibility, virality, and severity. The virus – working hand-in-glove with the complexities of individual and group risk assessment, identity politics, crisis management, social psychology, behavioral psychology, and public health messaging – has wreaked havoc for over two years now.

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We strongly encourage OODA Loop subscribers to continue to prioritize tools for clear decision-making while operating in a low information environment. It is this ‘tightening your OODA Loop” we want to reinforce now as we head into year three of our research and analysis of the pandemic and its impacts. Our goal is to assist our members (and your organizations) in your efforts to recognize the behavioral psychology patterns and cognitive traps which are manifest when dealing with uncertainty and imperfect information environments.

We will continue to use the OODA Loop to generate that value for our membership in the year ahead. Using our Covid-19 response over the last two years as a case study, here is how we do it.

OBSERVE | ORIENT | decide | act

Our tracking and analysis of the specific details of the Covid-19 pandemic began in January 2020, with early news briefs included in the OODA Loop Daily Pulse, such as:

January 23rd, when Wuhan shut down public transport over the outbreak. The entire city of Wuhan was on lockdown by later that day.

By January 29th, 4 Japanese evacuees from Wuhan were taken to hospital with fevers and by the 30th countries were stepping up their efforts to bring nationals back from Wuhan as coronavirus cases topped 7,000 in mainland China. By February 6th, Wuhan coronavirus hospitals were turning away all but the most severe cases.

At this early point in the pandemic, the business and market concerns were with the coronavirus closing China to the world, straining the global economy, and a global factory revival in doubt as the coronavirus spread.

Further tracking and analysis included: Coronavirus cases soar in Italy as authorities scramble to find patient zero and Coronavirus: World must prepare for pandemic, says WHO.

The first OODA Loop analysis posted to the site was an OODA Special Report: How the Coronavirus will impact your mid to long-range strategic planning on February 7th.

The World Health Organization proclaimed Covid-19 a global pandemic on March 11th. California initiated the first statewide lockdown in the United States on March 19th.

observe | orient | DECIDE | ACT

By March of 2020, the team here at OODA Loop was leveraging their experience with risk management, operational intelligence, and the OODA Loop as a decision-making tool to provide an early analysis which encouraged the OODA Loop site readership to tighten their OODA Loop (all the while taking into account the low information environment at the time).

As OODA CEO Matt Devost shared in his March 11th post “You Need to Tighten Your OODA Loop on the Coronavirus/COVID-19“:

“In this particular pandemic, you need to tighten your OODA Loop and make impactful decisions quicker. In fact, you need to make them right now.

We are conditioned to analyze data for our decisions and to wait for more data to emerge before making decisions, but in this crisis, indecision is action in itself and time is not on our side. One need simply look at the situation in Italy to understand what will happen in other areas (including the US) if we don’t act now. Today, Italy saw a 20% increase in cases and a 25% increase in deaths. They experienced nearly 200 deaths in one day and the medical infrastructure can not handle the new case capacity. Patients are being actively triaged for pre-existing conditions and lives that could have been saved are being lost. Today’s essential read on this topic is a data-driven plea to enact mass social distancing now.

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

This is not a time to panic. It is a time to lead with measured actions that might seem difficult now (closing schools, events, etc) but are manageable when contrasted with the impact of a national health crisis where we don’t flatten the curve. Tighten your OODA Loop. ACT now.”

OODA CTO Bob Gourley followed suit with Covid-19 coverage (also in March of 2020) on The Impact Of Coronavirus on your Markets and Business Strategy, Related Geopolitical Questions To Drive Your Strategic Planning, and Russia Exploitation of the Global Pandemic for Economic Attacks. A COVID-19 Sensemaking page was also stood up (which we continue to update).

On March 19th, the same day California went into lockdown, OODA CEO Matt Devost and OODA CTO Bob Gourley hosted an OODA Webinar on Managing Through COVID-19, looking at a variety of issues, including:

How we tracked the issue and what factors contributed to executive decision-making.
Strategic and operational planning
Supply chain resiliency
Realistic timeframes for recovery
How different regimes have and can manage the crisis
How companies will innovate
What industries will be impacted
Will countries exploit the crisis for other cyber and kinetic objectives?

What Next?

“A bias that I think has affected us during this COVID-19 period is this bias I think almost all of us have, which is to just assume that worst-case scenarios do not happen.” – Carmen Medina

As OODA Network Members William Hurd and Gary Harrington pointed out when sharing perspectives on 9/11 with Matt Devost on the OODAcast:

Congressman Hurd: You have to make decisions with imperfect information. You’re never going to have a total picture so you have to be comfortable with that. And then you have to think: what is that threshold where there is a no, where there was a go or no-go? And are you getting enough perspectives? The thing that always concerned me is I’m always worried about groupthink.

Matt Devost: But then also the quickness of making decisions, that’s something that I’ve observed even working with business leaders is that they constantly are trying to wait for the perfect moment or the perfect data in which to make a decision. But you reach this compression timeframe where the decision needs to be made based on the data that you had, right? Once you wait for perfect data, it would have been a decision that was too late for you.

Gary Harrington: If you are vigilant and you are watching, you start picking up those early signals and the more you’re not distracted, the quicker you can pick up the early signals. Then you have an evolving matrix of decisions. And the earlier you make a decision, the less dire the consequences are generally…it’s great to get information, but then you need to be willing to make those decisions.

Continue to tighten your OODA Loop. For more perspectives and conversations on these topics, see:

A CIA Officer and Delta Force Operator Share Perspectives on 9/11

Omand and Medina on Disinformation, Cognitive Bias, Cognitive Traps and Decision-making

Decision-Making Inside the CIA Counterterrorism Center Before, During, and After 9/11

Nate Fick on His Early Career, Writing ‘One Bullet Away’, The Stoics and Dynamic Leadership (Part 1 of 2)

John Robb on the Early Internet, Frameworks to Drive Decision Making, Network Tribalism and Emerging Threats (1 of 2)

Chet Richards and the Origin Story of The OODA Loop (Part 1 of 2)

Chet Richards on Applying OODA Loops in Business (Part 2 of 2)

Ellen McCarthy and Kathy and Randy Pherson on Intelligent Leadership and Critical Thinking

Clapper and Ashley on Joint Ops/Intel Operations, Decision-making, the History and Future of Intelligence and Cyber Threats