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OODA Special Report: The Kinetic Potential of Russian Cyber War

The proliferation of cyber physical systems (CPS) has increasingly enabled cyber actions to have direct kinetic effects on tangible infrastructure, even as cyberspace itself depends on tangible infrastructure vulnerable to kinetic damage.

Cyber attacks with kinetic effects debuted almost 20 years ago.  Recent history has included costly attacks against infrastructure by Iran and, as will be discussed further below, the most costly cyber attacks to date, which were launched by Russia.

This report focuses on Russia, a particularly important threat actor to track given their track record of brazen infrastructure attacks. It is almost certain that we will see further attacks from Russia against the infrastructure of other nations.  The only uncertainty remaining pertains to what sort of attacks they might be motivated to initiate under what circumstances, and whether we would even know if they had already been accomplished.

Major sections of the report include:

  • Threats to Air and Space Infrastructure
  • Threats to Underwater Infrastructure
  • Threats to Land Infrastructure
  • Kinetic Cyber Threats to Non-combatants
  • Autonomous Threats To Combat Forces
  • The Bottom Line for Business

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Tyler Robinson

Tyler Robinson

Tyler Robinson is an OODA analyst currently based in Colorado Springs, Colorado. He holds an undergraduate degree in International Relations and a Master of Letters in International Security Studies from the University of St Andrews. His research interests include political psychology, deniable actors, gray area phenomena, and privatized security.